5th AKB48 Senbatsu Sousenkyo Predictions + Dark Horses

While people have made predictions from since the announcement of the event last March up until before the voting period, I haven’t posted my predictions yet. I’m mostly on Stage48, JPHiP and Everyday48. Since this is just predictions and also since the preliminary results have been released, I might take it to consideration.

  1. Oshima Yuko
Even with 13,993 votes in the preliminary, she already ranked 3rd place behind Sashihara Rino and Watanabe Mayu. Taking last year’s results into account, she might just start a rally in order to make sure she claims the throne once again. She’s been into drama roles although she has been a huge part of the revival concerts of Team K Stages. Still the ace of AKB until she graduates, she hopes she can claim the top spot once again and become the center of the next single. People often ask when she would graduate and maybe it could be a better time announcing it after the elections especially if she wins on a high note. She has done so much for AKB that she won’t be forgotten anytime soon.
2. Watanabe Mayu
Touted as the next ace of AKB48 and has been the center for the recent singles, Watanabe Mayu announced in an event that she wants to finally take the top spot and become the ace of AKB48. While she got 14,868 votes in the preliminary, it will take more effort from her fans to propel herself to becoming number 1. Anime, Takarazuka, Photobook, upcoming single, drama roles and voice acting, she’s done a lot of things this year but I put her into 2nd spot only because she’s fighting Yuko head on. Both Mayu and Yuko fans seem to have the same strategy and this is where Mayu might lose come results day. She became Team A’s ace after the departure of Maeda Atsuko. Will the Nogizaka wotas help her?
3. Sashihara Rino
What would HKT be like without her? It’s hard to say but maybe they will still be as unrecognized as they are now. After the transfer to HKT, she became more popular and took the role of being the leader there. She made HKT members grow in their own way especially in variety. She also stressed about working hard because Team H got too relaxed in one of their rehearsals. There’s many names you can call her: the idol, the wota, the theater manager, the variety queen, the host of a lot of shows in AKB right now. She’s really in a good position after getting a big lead over everybody else in the preliminary. She’s got 28,516 votes already so if her fans can keep on pouring votes into her, she will definitely exceed expectation and defeat the pretty much hyped Yuko vs Mayu and make it better. I still think that she might not be able to sustain her lead and thus fall down to 3rd but she won’t fall too hard. She thinks positively and hopefully that helps. Her hometown is supporting her so no worries. Ever since the 1st election, she has always increased in rank. For those who ranked her too low, better think about it.
4. Kashiwagi Yuki
After a year, she has done a lot of things that would keep her up there. She already held 2 live solo performances and also her debut single. She also has drama roles and also a lot of magazine photoshoots. The recent scandal probably didn’t affect her so much because it was more of a knock out punch to Minegishi more than anything and that media tried to brush it off.
5. Shinoda Mariko
She still has a solid fanbase and while, she isn’t really doing a lot of work besides anything related to fashion. She opened her shop which is related to clothing so you might think this isn’t much but I still think she has the fans to stay alive. Old but gold as they say and she might just be the last one to graduate of all the 1st gen. She will still the senpai of many more AKB members to come.
6. Itano Tomomi
As the only graduating member from AKb48 joining the election, she hopes to rank high and take back her spot in the Kami7. She will release her single after the election but she’ll probably be leaving before the year ends. People were not surprised when she announced her graduation back in February as she is the member that is most ready for the outside world. When Acchan graduated, she was probably held back by a few months before announcing it. She didn’t have the guts to say it on stage which is why she personally said it in the 3rd documentary.
7. Takahashi Minami
Despite releasing her 1st single, I think she and Kojima Haruna are in danger of leaving the Top 7. She has been named soukantoku and her appearances recently may have given her the edge against Haruna. She recently held her solo live and also has been in magazine covers too. She is an excellent performer live and I’ll take her over Haruna anyday. She has loyal support from fans and I know she’d do well in this election.
8. Kojima Haruna
Peach John and a lot of photoshoots. She has been in a lot of magazine covers and I found her PB in my local hobby shop. She is a hard worker and even if she’s 25, she still has the moves for dancing and can sing well. She might lose her Kami7 spot to Takamina and Tomochin because I feel that they want it more. She has a solid fanbase but I don’t think that she has that drive that I’m looking for.
9. Matsui Rena
I think the next two spots are the battle of WMatsui. Rena is a hard worker and now that she is the captain of the new Team E, I think she’ll do her best. It could be her year defeating the other Matsui. She has been the one holding SKE48 when Jurina is not there and she acts as the spokesperson of the group. SKE fans and wotas have been rallying so much that the SKE members really got a good rank in the preliminary. They might burn out to the Kami7/8 and that’s why Rena I think would be number 9.
10. Matsui Jurina
Rena would beat Jurina just because Jurina is in a concurrent position and because she’s been busy trying to help Team S and Team K (as a replacement for Yonezawa Rumi). The bad thing is that her body gets worn out each time she overworks and that’s where she gets sick. While she is an energy girl and 1/2 of the ace ot SKE48, I think she’ll compete neck and neck with Rena. She’s still young and will be in a lot more activities for AKB and SKE. I think Rena fans want it more so I’ll drop Jurina to 10th.
11. Miyazawa Sae
She still has dedicated fans even if she has work-related problems in China. She feels like that she hasn’t done enough for the year that’s why she got a concurrent position back to Team K where she really belongs. She is a great senpai and an energy dancer. She enjoys being in AKB48 and still has a few years left in her. She hopes to have a good rank and also prove that being in an another environment won’t hinder her chances of going back to senbatsu.
12. Kitahara Rie
She probably has the most underrated fanbase and also one of the most quiet. Even when she was in SKE, I think that her fans followed her from there and now back to being AKB full time, her fans may have never left her. SKE accepted her as a member and maybe that helped her in the past few months. Since Kasai Tomomi left, I think she moves up from her previous rank. In the long run she will lead Team K even after the foundation of it, the 2nd generation girls graduate.
13. Yokoyama Yui
I think she’ll do good in this election so she moves up. She is a hard worker and probably being in the NMB environment might have helped her. Now that she’s back to Team A, she’ll have more time to shine. Honmayan still has a lot of fans and she could be the future leader. She really wanted to sing so maybe she’ll have her solo in the future.
14. Minegishi Minami
One of the unsafe picks I should say. She’s been the leader of the KKS ever since the scandal broke out. She’s been pretty much under the radar these days. Her role is still like she never got demoted but she still has a fanbase willing to support her. I think that this election will remind her fans how relevant she still is and how much she wants to be back to the regular senbatsu if ever. Still unknown when she’ll get promoted, she’s trying her best to make herself look better. Maybe one day she’ll grow her hair back and be the same old Miichan we all knew.
15. Shimazaki Haruka
I think Paruru will make it in this time in the senbatsu but will be in this spot because everyone else will try and have as many votes as her. Her cute factor will be a threat to the other members and also her mega push might make her land a spot and I think being in 15th place is good enough. Ponkotsu power!
16. Yamamoto Sayaka
I think she’ll squeeze her way into the top 16 because she has the looks, the talent and the personality you want your typical idol to have. Being the leader of NMB48, Sayanee has a great chance of making it to the Top 16 and she’ll most likely edge out her rival Watanabe Miyuki, who has a great appeal to the fans. Oppai-chan is strong.
Candidates for Undergirls Center (Dark Horses) and Lower Senbatsu
Watanabe Miyuki

I think it will be a close fight between her and Sayanee. Milky has always been a dark horse because she’s always great in handshakes and her being cute and being able to dance will definitely attract fans. She’ll probably fall to Sayanee once again but still it won’t be bad to see her try to make it to the senbatsu, more or less be Undergirls center. Her being in Team B helps too. She’s always positive and puts that smile on her face because she enjoys being able to sing and dance.

Takajo Aki

She barely missed senbatsu last year but it will not affect her popularity because her transfer to JKT has become fruitful so far. She is the ace there and would be willing to have another shot at senbatsu or being Undergirls center again. Being promoted after her debut in 71 days, it’s been a record so people see how talented this girl is.


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